Small business optimism rises in November, signaling confidence from owners as the holiday season gets underway. The latest data from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) shows the optimism index climbed 0.8 points to 99 last month. The increase was driven by stronger sales expectations and expanding hiring plans, reflecting a positive outlook heading into 2026.
Small business optimism rises with sales outlook
A major factor behind the rise in small business optimism was improved sales forecasts. Many owners are anticipating a strong close to the year, bolstered by the reopening of the federal government and robust holiday consumer spending. The lift in sales sentiment provided a foundation for renewed growth plans across retail, services, and other small-scale operations.
Hiring expectations also strengthened. Nineteen percent of small businesses reported plans to increase staffing, up four points from October. The willingness to grow payrolls shows that many owners feel confident in their short-term revenue outlook and are actively preparing to meet demand.
Adapting to challenges with confidence
Although the November report did note a rise in supply chain concerns, business owners continue to adapt. Sixty-four percent reported some disruption, the highest since March 2023. Yet, this has not dampened the overall optimism, as many businesses have restructured supply networks and adjusted inventory strategies to stay competitive.
The ability to navigate these obstacles while maintaining forward momentum reflects the resourcefulness of the small business sector. Owners are focused on solutions and continue to invest in customer service, staffing, and operational efficiency.
Navigating uncertainty with a proactive mindset
The NFIB Uncertainty Index rose modestly by three points to 91. While this indicates some caution around future policy or economic shifts—especially regarding trade—it has not halted business activity or dampened current performance indicators.
Despite this, optimism about present-day operations remains intact. The combination of steady demand, holiday sales, and proactive hiring puts small businesses in a strong position as they enter the new year.
Small businesses continue to show why they are vital to the U.S. economy—responding quickly to change, supporting local employment, and fueling economic activity through periods of uncertainty.
Positive finish to 2025
With hiring up and holiday sales off to a strong start, small business optimism rises at a key moment. Owners are entering 2026 with cautious optimism, ready to grow and meet customer needs while navigating the broader economic landscape.
