Mortgage activity cooled in late September, with the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reporting a 12.7% decline in total application volume for the week ending September 26, 2025. While the short-term slowdown follows several weeks of strong activity, applications remain higher than a year ago—a signal of continued buyer interest across California’s housing market, including the San Gabriel Valley.
Refinancing and Purchase Trends
The MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey found the Refinance Index fell 21% from the previous week after climbing earlier in September. The Purchase Index, which tracks applications for home purchases, slipped 1%. Conventional and VA mortgage applications also declined.
Despite the weekly dip, refinancing activity had recently reached its highest point of the year as mortgage rates softened from peaks seen earlier in 2025. For many homeowners in the San Gabriel Valley, where home equity has grown sharply over the past two years, refinancing remains an appealing option for lowering monthly payments or consolidating debt.
Year-Over-Year Strength
On an unadjusted basis, purchase applications were up 16% from the same period last year. That improvement reflects how mortgage rates—though still elevated by historic standards—have moved below the highs of early 2025. The easing of rates has given some first-time buyers and move-up buyers renewed confidence to re-enter the market.
Local agents note that affordability remains a major concern in the San Gabriel Valley, but slightly lower rates can open doors for families who were priced out earlier in the year. Home prices have stabilized across cities such as El Monte, Baldwin Park, and Temple City, while listings have increased modestly heading into fall.
Outlook for Rates and the Economy
Economists expect rates to decline gradually in the coming months, driven by signs of a slowing economy and weakening job markets. Lower rates could stimulate renewed activity in both refinancing and purchase segments by late fall.
According to the MBA, the market’s direction will depend largely on upcoming inflation and employment data. For now, the modest drop in rates offers a window of opportunity for buyers considering entering the market before the end of the year.
For detailed weekly updates, visit the Mortgage Bankers Association’s website at www.mba.org.
