Consumers are showing growing confidence in the labor market, with recent data indicating stronger job security and improved prospects for re-employment. The New York Federal Reserve’s latest Survey of Consumer Expectations, released in December, reflects a notable shift in how Americans view their work stability—even as broader economic concerns continue.
Fewer Americans fear job loss
In November, the perceived likelihood of job loss over the next 12 months dropped slightly to 13.8%, marking a 0.2-point improvement from October. This modest but meaningful decline suggests more workers feel secure in their current roles as the year closes.
Meanwhile, confidence in finding a new job rose as well. The share of respondents who believe they could secure employment within three months of losing a job increased to 47.3%, up 0.5 points. This upward trend in job market optimism highlights continued strength in hiring across sectors and a labor market that remains dynamic.
For workers and job seekers, this indicates that opportunities remain accessible—even in an economy showing signs of cooling. Stable hiring levels and slower layoffs are helping to support this outlook.
Room to grow in financial expectations
Although job confidence is growing, consumer sentiment around personal finances remains mixed. The number of respondents who reported being financially worse off than a year ago rose to 39%, a reflection of ongoing concerns about inflation and rising living costs.
Still, over a quarter of those surveyed—26.5%—believe they will be better off financially one year from now. While this figure dipped slightly from the previous month, it points to a segment of consumers holding long-term optimism.
These results align with recent economic patterns, where labor market strength coexists with financial strain in some households. Analysts refer to this trend as a K-shaped recovery—where some groups rebound more quickly than others, depending on factors such as income level, employment sector, and cost of living.
Balanced outlook heading into 2026
As 2025 winds down, consumers are balancing realistic concerns with cautious confidence. The job market continues to offer stability, which may help lift broader financial expectations over time. Ongoing wage growth, moderating inflation, and targeted relief programs could contribute to improved household outlooks in the new year.
For now, the latest survey results suggest Americans feel more secure in their employment than they did earlier this year—a positive foundation as the economy navigates a complex but manageable path forward.
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